
3 reasons to be a believer:
1. Opportunity. When the Bears drafted Benson 4th overall in 2005 they did so with the undeniable intention to make him their #1 guy. However, a 36-day holdout and a bad attitude all but sacked Benson's chances in his first two seasons as a pro. But time heals all, and now with Benson entering his 3rd year in the NFL, the moon and stars have finally aligned for Cedric Benson to make his long-awaited debut as a feature running back. Cedric Benson will be given every opportunity to tote the rock 300+ times, and if he can improve on his pass-catching technique, Benson's fantasy ceiling could be pretty darn high.
2. Touchdowns. This is more guesswork (in July) than anything else, but a quick look at the Bears roster of runners makes it obvious that Benson is the most physically endowed RB the Bears have to handle short-yardage duty. Benson has 10+ pounds on backup RB Adrian Peterson, and rookie Garrett Wolfe is a lightweight change-of-pace guy. There is no reason to believe the Bears won't be feeding the ball to Benson on the goal-line and therefore a 10+ touchdown season is well within his grasp.
3. Rex Grossman. The Rex Grossman factor is an important one because it speaks to a larger issue - offensive gameplan. Grossman has not proven to be the kind of QB that can win games with his arm. His job is to manage the game, not make mistakes and orchestrate a conservative-style offense that gives their defense a chance to win games for them. The Bears consistently find themselves in the enviable position of playing 'clock ball' wherein they play with a tight lead and run the ball to kill the clock in the 2nd half of games. Bottom line - their offensive gameplan is perfectly suited to feature Cedric Benson from the start of the game to the final play.
2 reasons to be skeptical:
4. Injury-prone. Benson has sprained his MCL, injured his shoulder, and sprained his left knee over a 2-year span and he's done all of that despite not seeing the field with any regularity. There is legit cause for concern here. Benson strikes me as being one of those guys who will go one way or the other. Sometimes guys get tougher and harden with more regular contact and are seemingly more brittle when they get less work. I think of a guy like Chester Taylor who always seemed to be nursing some bump or bruise while he was backing up Lewis in Baltimore. But as soon as Taylor was given a starting job and was taking regular contact every week, he seemed to respond and his body toughened up, evidenced by his 303-carry season in 2006. I think we'll know pretty quickly if Benson has the look of a hard-nosed feature runner or not. But buyer beware here, because it would surprise nobody if Benson got hurt again.
5. 3rd Downs. Will Cedric Benson be an every-down RB? The short answer is, we don't know yet. I think it is reasonable to assume that both Peterson and Wolfe will be given snaps on 3rd down situations until such time as Benson proves he can do it all. Nobody knows yet if Benson has the all-purpose game in his bag of tricks, so it is conceivable that Benson's value may be somewhat limited if he consistently gets removed in 3rd-down situations. This is especially something to watch for in PPR leagues.
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